Israel, Syria and a Vail of Secrecy

For the past month, rumors have abounded about a small swath of desert in Syria; the target of an Israeli air raid on September 6th. For a week after, the major players in this conflict remained suspiciously silent; apart from Syria which condemned the attack and claiming the Israeli Air Force (IAF) had flown into sovereign territory and had been shot at by the new Syrian air defenses.

Since then, news has slowly trickled out in an odd and suspect manner. There were leaks from within the Israeli government and a tepid confirmation of a raid by the US government. Rumours came that the strike was against weapons being transported from Iran to Hezbullah terrorists in Lebanon, or, worse yet, a shipment of nuclear equipment and supplies from North Korea to Syria. The Israeli's let out an intriguing comment that their "deterrence capability" had been restored since the war in Lebanon in the summer of 2006. The latest piece of information came three days ago out of Israel: an official acknowledgment of an air raid on a target in the Syrian desert on September 6th, nearly a month after the actual raid.

My question is: what gives? Israel is given to secrecy, but historically, this secrecy abates after a successful operation. Which might lead one to think that this operation was a failure; but, all the evidence points to a success (especially the relative quiet in Syria). So, if this was indeed a success, why is Israel being so quiet? Israel has always used its military successes (read: Six Day War) to gain credibility within the international community. In its current state, this is exactly what Israel needed after its highly publicized Lebanese debacle.

However, Israel had to keep in mind that, if it said anything, other Arab countries would feel it necessary to speak out against Israel's countries. I think that the biggest reason for the secrecy is for fear. With the world's eye turned towards a peace conference between Israel and the Palestinians, Israel believes that if it regains the belief of the world that it is a military threat, then it can use that upper hand to muscle in a peace deal that excludes the "key points" of the Palestinians and Arabs regarding the "right of return" and "occupied territories".

Regardless, The Israeli military is not as weak or unable to exert its force as believed after Lebanon and this message will reach foreign ears, both in the West and those not (read: Iran).